The past two weeks saw a radical switch in the country’s approach to the pandemic. Travel advisories were lifted, MOH stopped publishing daily updates of all confirmed cases – choosing to focus only on hospitalized cases, most hospitals and clinics have also stopped testing most cases with influenza-like illnesses, and temperature screening at the borders have ceased (this was not very useful as a screening test anyway). This is in line with WHO’s stance – the Director-General had recently declared that the pandemic was now “unstoppable”.
There is still some confusion on the ground (in healthcare and other institutions, such as schools), but this is to be expected given the relatively swift switch to mitigation after many signals (some mixed) and cautionary messages about the risks of complacency and the need to be safe. Most hospitals have stopped admitting “well” H1N1-infected patients and even those that are hospitalized get discharged rapidly once doctors are certain that the risk of complications developing are minimal.
In the coming weeks, another phase of the outbreak in Singapore will be apparent. Mathematical modelers in NUS and TTSH have already detected (and predicted) an increase in flu cases in Singapore above the baseline. As the numbers increase, we will see the truly ill patients come in. There were three H1N1-infected patients in ICU’s all over Singapore as of yesterday, and this number will grow over time. Given the record in other countries, we should expect deaths to occur as well, despite the best medical care. It does not mean the virus has suddenly become more virulent, but this is just the natural course of events. Earlier detection and treatment of the severe cases may ameliorate the morbidity and mortality that will arise. Less “clogging” of the healthcare services (such as emergency departments) will help.
There has been news of a H1N1 vaccine on the horizon. Realistically, this will not come in time for most of us. All is not gloom and doom, of course. It is after all the most wimpy pandemic virus to date and the vast majority of people infected will suffer nothing more than a cold.
There is still some confusion on the ground (in healthcare and other institutions, such as schools), but this is to be expected given the relatively swift switch to mitigation after many signals (some mixed) and cautionary messages about the risks of complacency and the need to be safe. Most hospitals have stopped admitting “well” H1N1-infected patients and even those that are hospitalized get discharged rapidly once doctors are certain that the risk of complications developing are minimal.
In the coming weeks, another phase of the outbreak in Singapore will be apparent. Mathematical modelers in NUS and TTSH have already detected (and predicted) an increase in flu cases in Singapore above the baseline. As the numbers increase, we will see the truly ill patients come in. There were three H1N1-infected patients in ICU’s all over Singapore as of yesterday, and this number will grow over time. Given the record in other countries, we should expect deaths to occur as well, despite the best medical care. It does not mean the virus has suddenly become more virulent, but this is just the natural course of events. Earlier detection and treatment of the severe cases may ameliorate the morbidity and mortality that will arise. Less “clogging” of the healthcare services (such as emergency departments) will help.
There has been news of a H1N1 vaccine on the horizon. Realistically, this will not come in time for most of us. All is not gloom and doom, of course. It is after all the most wimpy pandemic virus to date and the vast majority of people infected will suffer nothing more than a cold.
1 comments:
Hello,
I hope you were being facetious about the "wimpy pandemic virus."
This is only the first wave. Ther coudl potentially be further waves of mor letha virus to follow this one.
All three pandemics in the 20th century started with one "mild" first wave, followed by one or more virulent succesive waves.
1918 comes to mind..,
Auburn Boy
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